Thursday, April 29, 2010

End of the Best

End of "Best Six Months" of the year

When the market is euphoric because it has returned to pre-Lehman days the market is trying to tell us something. Is it that it's not going to get much better than this?

Or is it than we are now selling ourselves a bill of good will, and cheer, and allowing ourselves to at least "break even." Remember, the vast majority of people, regular investors, did not participate in the 50% returns of last year, fearful the world finances were coming to an end.

Exxon Mobil and Conoco Phillips both report earnings today, and Burger King reports before the market opens. Rio Tinte today splits 4 to 1.

55.2% in a public survey felt that Goldman Sachs was guilty. This means there are some really stupid people (20.7% say the certain the firm is not guilty alone) that have been in a tea party hole pushing for "free enterprise." For fun, read Confessions of an Economic Hitman

Reading this book alone ought to frighten the capitalism of your core being right out of you.

Now, to the market as we see it. Through 2.43 p.m., before the 3 p.m. hour, the market had moved to a theoretical Dow low of 10,925 to a high of 11,118. Much whipsaw occurred in early trading, allowing entry to the May 550 Call as low as 3.80 and easy sales to 5.20 by early afternoon. It was an easy 37% profit on simple and mild whipsaw. However, others bought this higher and it does remain an open signal. From there we saw the market take off and new buyers of our call today had an even longer opportunity to hold for profit.

This is of interest. At times while holding a position, taking a day trade on it at the same time, a new position, often makes it easier for multiple or confirmed profits on the option.

The market reversed itself, which if it continues today may mean our consolidation was short and fast; the bears swear 10, 700 within days.

We provide dual signals, with our lead to the call, and more upside for the short term.

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