Thursday, June 10, 2010

Interpretation Can Change Reality

Any interpretation can change reality. Here's an example.

1. I bought IBM a year ago and have greatly profited.

2. There is gossip that IBM will come out with "great earnings" tomorrow

3. Based on cycles, the stock will either go up or down.

4. If tomorrow is a cycle low, and IBM shows great results, the stock will go up.

All the news services will write: "Results for IBM were good and the market liked it and bought IBM"

5. But, if the cycle is high, the stock will go down, even on positive results

The news will then say: Investors took profits with good earnings, as they see IBM waning over the next year.

Now, view our video on treating options as fruit and being a fruit vendor. Your job as a trader is to understand how the market will move and how fast the bananas will rot.
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Gain a sense of lack of respect. Question facts. Above all, question authority.
Today's example: GM is recalling 1.5 million vehicles for windshield wiper fluid systems that catch on FIRE, and will give owners $100.00
First, it's rape to the public.
Second, it's second page news to Toyota's recall; who paid for this lobbying?
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With futures being 53 points up before 9 a.m. the market had hesitated in the pre-morning, so we'll share some chartists theories of upside/downside:

1. OEX Options believes the first upside at 10,050 and a maximum upside (586 points from the low) to 10,350, before correction again.

2. Some MACD chartists see this first high, and a drop to as low as 9550, the bottom we hit last year, which we did NOT close at. Our lowest low may have been here, but it did not close there.

Some chartists believe this could be a final bottom test, well below 9774, that than takes the market to flat lining and later upside, with a 1000 point overall potential rise in two segments-first up to 10,136, and a stop at 10,440.

3. Timing chartists that follow cycles don't see any upside returning that holds until the third week of June, at the earliest.

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And here's what happened. Our contrary play to the OEX 470 Put was available below prior day close as low as 3.40 and sold to 5.60 by 3..30 p.m. We consider this position sold profitably.

Our "we are in love with" option, the Oct 500C was an easy play. Traders that held the issue at 2.35 averaged cost were able to sell to 3.00, and we consider this trade sold profitably.

We open the day with no new positions. If you hold either of the above trades, continue to hold through Friday for sale, and we'll issue a new trade today.


Dow Theoretical High 6/9-10,105 (right in our turn around scenario)
Dow Theoretical Low 6/9-9848

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