It is Learning the Differentiation that makes a Difference

Jean Gebser was a philosopher that felt human consciousness had developed in lie into "structures". IN 1953 he wrote The Ever-Present Origin, and outlined categorizations that led to integral theory models.

Gebser saw turmoil, chaos and social, moral and political decline as positive, no matter what the short term, as turmoil led to new levels of human consciousness. Floydian Therapy works in this way, seeing the current "dissolution of values", or "core beliefs" as coming from polarization "led by how we are led", or not led. In other words, we as a people follow our own chaos and turmoil (worldwide) and if GREED the culprit, magnify it. If FEAR the culprit, we magnify it. And cause and effect leads supply and demand, and the economics of the world then leads the next trigger points.

This is heady stuff, but where we are. Knowing and understanding it is key to your stock market successes. Much of my discussion with clients surrounds learning and understanding our recognition that the way we interpret our experience really determines how we value and see it.

When we understand HOW we interpret an experience we can begin to determine how we value and see it. In turn, if we believe that how we see it is "the norm", or "right" we influence the experience and make it unreal.

Here's an example: on every flight I take I pack a box cutter. This is how 9/11 occurred, and our rights are trampled daily by the TSA at airports as we as people stand in Holocaust lines filing through.

In the last 19 flights my box cutter has never been noticed. This is why I carry it. I am proving to myself either the lack of security, OR the changes in laws that would allow a box cutter to go through (many airports tell me this is now acceptable). It's a classic example of stupidity. I have to take my shoes off, but box cutters are okay, or not noticed.

This means two things:

1. The TSA is inept and the entire "investigation" of our people is worthless.

2. That as sheep the American people have "believed" the rule, "believed the "value of the rule", and "believed" in the competency of the initial decision. The initial decision was not competent, making the "effect" secondary to the "cause".

All three of the beliefs have been false.

It is how we see things that influence how they are experienced.

This is more than true in the stock market.

My rebellion in carrying my box cutter is simply to remind me of what IS, not what is told me to be.

When I hear "facts" I immediately try to prove to myself if they are really facts, or instead, "false facts". It is learning the differentiation that makes a difference. It is from this that we were able, in our Blue Chip Option service, to sell near the top at 14,000, and sell again at 11,000....as none of the economic FACTS we had been hearing made sense to Floyd. Oil at all time highs (then), but unemployment not high......but all the new jobs in home building only, and the market topping. When oil was speculated beyond comprehension, we could and should have been able to see that trader speculation was far out of control. This would have been an example of "understanding false facts", much of what I try to teach in my constant tirades on the idiocy of "analysts and talking heads", most of whom have now lost their jobs, and our fortunes.

Market conditions "flat lined" for so many hours on Monday, yet again a sign that the market does not know what to do. We saw the market move from an opening top 9200, to a bottom testing by 3 p.m. at 8723.

November 380 puts were able to be bought at as low as 1.75, below prior day close, and sold to highs of 4.00, exceeding our expectations. We'll list these as a new potential signal, HIGHER risk only.

GM May Not Have Enough Money To Finish The Year

GM may not have enough money to finish out the year, and has quieted its acquisition/consolidation talks with Chrysler, both of whom will have to be bailed out, Floyd believes, by the U.S. Government. What a sad statement. Blame must be made.

We have entered the greatest recessionary period since Reagan's second term in office.

We are threatened by three ongoing wars created:

1. The useless war in Iraq

2. The war in Afghanistan

3. The war against "red and blue", the divisive split of the country. This is the biggest war, and part of the war of a world that has been watching (and following us) in our Greed and loathing, and a world watching (not hoping) that we can become a true superpower again. We as a nation are NOT that now.

From Mike Gibbons:


Although Friday's gains gave a little relief after the 10% losses of the previous two sessions, they came on light volume and as such did not convince us that the overall downward trend is broken. In fact, as the economic news worsens, not just in the US but around the world, it is becoming more and more certain that we are in for a prolonged and deep recession. If so, there are further gains to be made on the short side and very little to be gained by going long. As we show in this weeks Top Tip, our short side selections have been very successful and as a group have given much better returns than would have been obtained by shorting the major indexes alone.

Friday's unemployment figures were bad but because they count only those actively looking for work they do not count those who have given up or are on shorter work weeks. So the unemployment figures are actually much worse than the headline number suggests. Commentators on the News Hour Friday night estimated that the real unemployment rate is 11% and could grow to 15% in coming months. This will clearly be devastating to the economy and it is essential an effective stimulus package be enacted quickly. The market action on Friday indicates some investors are anticipating such a package and that regained confidence, when it is enacted, will lift the markets higher. We think there is more downside potential than upside.

I Agree With You on Almost Everything...

As always, Floydian rants solicit commentary from our subscribers, as my job is to provoke and make you question everything. It's how you'll learn to read the market, and learn not to believe what is "told to you." Listening to the stories and lies (cell phones on bring down airplanes) is what creates our issues.

Level 3 subscriber AG from Colorado took my comments on the Holocaust, and how certain Muslims may want to rewrite history, and taught me well what I was trying to teach you. What AG teaches is how we as a people "selectively" are provided, or chose to remember or marginalize what we choose to not know. Read carefully, as this is exactly appropriate to the stock market, and how we have allowed ourselves to be manipulated:


"I just read your commentary. I agree with you on almost everything .The only thing that I could disagree with you on is that, I do see a hope for America now in Barack. The way will not be easy but I do feel very strongly he has been able to crystallize the ideals on which America was founded. We are not a perfect Union yet but at each time in which we meet extreme difficulty it is a chance to reaffirm ourselves, to raise above the forces of negativity within each of us and move little closer to a more perfect higher self. In this election Barack is not special because of his ethnicity, because he is the first "African American president." He is transformational because he started and successfully realized a movement based on social justice and a vision of equality for all people. It is in our times of greatest despair that we get to see the light that illuminates all of us from within. We saw it before in the time of our founding fathers, in the time of the civil war with Lincoln and in the time of JFK. I think we are seeing it now again in Obama. What makes him transformational is that he is no more or less the every one of us. His uniqueness comes from his commonness and his ability to fight for it.

In respect to the subscriber who wrote of the rewriting of history in regards to the holocaust, I have to agree that the only way we learn and developed as a society is to learn form the past and so the preservation of both the good and bad in our growth as a civilization must be recorded meticulously . But I pose the question, whose version of history should prevail? We in the west know of world history as seen though our eyes, we are taught in schools of the sacrifice of Christian lives during the crusades, yet have we ever looked at how many Muslims were killed during those religious wars? We don't really have to even go that far back. A few years ago every day we would see running on the bottom of the CNN news tape the death toll of American soldiers in IRAQ. What is amazing is that as we record the sacrifice of American lives in Iraq yet most Americans will not be able to tell you of the number of Iraqi lives that have been lost because our invasion. At least we have a history of the Jewish holocaust. What is so very sad is that over 1.2 million Iraqi people have died since our "liberation" and we do not even generally make this holocaust known let alone "attempt to erase it." Had Hitler won the war "history" would have only considered the atrocities of this monster as "collateral damage" in much the same way we have marginalized what we have done to the Iraqis. My point in the tirade is that before we point fingers perhaps we should try to make ourselves a better people and hold ourselves to the same standards we try to hold others to. If we truly want to grow as a nation and as individuals we have to first take a look at the face that stares back at us from the mirror and conquer our own demons first."

With this said, it's time to move on. Every hope and prayer I have is in Obama being able to transform, and lead, and pull us to one nation. There must not be red/blue states, or people, and the hate, anger, and divisiveness in our nation must end, or it will destroy us.
No economic news is good, and the market now "reacts" to a new President. We believe a bottom is occurring, at least for the short term, and that market volatility may continue, but the fear will slightly subside.
The rhetoric will slow, and actions will begin.

Our December puts were profitable to highs of 15.00, keeping our record almost spotless, and the Dow closed right near our Dow projection bottoms.
Although it may not occur today, it is likely now that the market will bottom. Watch for any upturn 100 points up that holds through close to see if we have upside potential. We'll hold our November calls a few more days on upturn, with two buys made.

A Dramatic Victory

The Democrats won a dramatic victory and the mood on Wall Street was as expected, with market moves that took the market to lows of 9,071.

Level 3 Subscriber RC, a devout Republican, writes me regularly with his point of view, and I respect him. Yesterday he wrote to be shocked about how Muslims have now forced Great Britain, and San Francisco, to take Holocaust historical facts out of the history books, et al, as certain Muslims do not believe there was a Holocaust. As we bantered back and forth, RC wrote me I had "too much hate."

The election is now over. I have had much disrespect, and a great deal of anger, over Bushian neo conservatism, but began thinking about "hate," and sent RC this commentary:


I thought about your comment.

I have not hate, only disrespect for much that has gone on. Bush deserves to be hated (or at least not respected, he has destroyed our country in many ways)

I do not believe that a young Barack Obama meeting Ayers, led by a top Republican (never mentioned) has a single thing to do with whether he can run a country. McCain's faulty game plays on this backfired on him.

I do believe that choosing Sarah Palin, a Christian right winger, was a classic example of how bad McCain would manage, as he chose a potential leader of the world, to win. Sorry, she cannot lead our country. The majority of our country, thankfully, agreed with me. McCain's "game" failed.

I do believe we were consciously lied to by Bush and Cheney about Iraq and that their oil war backfired on them. I do believe that we have killed our our own citizens, spent billions, and killed numerous civilians, for a war that has no end, and no purpose. What Hussein did is irrelevant, as it is not to us to go to each dictatorship to "save the world."

I do believe that church and state must be separated.

I do believe that Muslims should not be influencing historical perspectives, such as the Holocaust, and that we are now seeing the reverse reaction by our over reaction to their anger. Their anger is deserved, sadly, as we have made Muslims "the evil ones," and created a world of anger (All Bush and neo cons). We are a world of varying people, and different religions.

I do not believe any reference to God should influence our politics, as our nation is NOT Christian, but a multitude of religions.

I do believe that McCain has made it a campaign of hate first, and that we now have idiots being mean to Palin, et al. It's a two edged sword. I think McCain's ugly campaign finally backfired on him, and his "games" were seen through.

I do believe that McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time, and I do believe that Bush politics have created this entire mess. All fell in, but it was "from the top" that our direction began.

I do believe that it's time to let the Democrats yet again undo the supply side game that Reagan led , quadrupled by Bushy 1, and now made worse by Bushy 2. Living in Florida I simply was stunned by what Jeb Bush, our former Governor, was able to do to destroy our school systems, and home ownership taxation.

I do believe that our no bid games in Iraq were great for Bush croney's, and built nothing. I know. I sold kitchens to Halliburton for Iraq that I saw marked up 200% after our sale, for doing nothing.

I do believe that your opinion on abortion and same sex marriage bores me. I want you to have the right to your opinion, as I want the right to mine....and not be legislated if I disagree with you. I want a Supreme Court that does not bring religion into decisions.

I do believe that neither candidate will be able to do half of what they have said, as we will find our economic situation even worse, and will be out of money.

I do believe that McCain is a loser, just a war hero done good, that is a poor choice for the Republicans, and that Palin was worse, and the election will be lost by Tom Delay, by Karl Rove, by the entire "Bushy gang" that made little of our rights, falsely imprisoned people, and allowed horrifying lack of prisoner rights to be done, all in the name of terrorism. I was proven right.

I do believe we took our eye off the ball and left Afghanistan. Went to Iraq, for oil. Let Wall St. ride. Tried to even privatize social security.

Not hate, but hard facts to me that I'd have preferred Bill Clinton to what Bush did, and I prefer the chance to Obama, that to have allowed Sarah potentially be President.

You find facts often that you send that show what others have done wrong, yet have nothing to do with this. Ayers and Obama.....what's the connection, Obama at 25 working with Republicans leading a committee that Ayers is on, and it becoming the "game" of the election, because McCain has nothing good to say. I saw this election become classic Republican games of "fear and loathing", just as Bushy did 4 and 8 years ago. Finally America saw through the "fear" game.

Not hate, just a disrespect always for those that want to tell me how I must be. And I dead agree with you on the Holocaust and Muslims, but find this is the issue, NOT the cause. We have created a world of haters, and no one will really win, as half the country thinks one way and the other the opposite.

How sad.

So, the election is over, and now the real issue begins....what honestly can be done, not the promises, but what can be done, to lead this country to unison, and economic balance. We have spent far too long without any unity."

Presidential Euphoria

From "Key Turning Dates":

"Almost two years ago, I alerted to expect 2007 to mark an historic high in the stock market. My rationale was based on the fact that 2007 would mark the anniversary year of many major market peaks. The year 2007, I wrote, would mark the 200th anniversary of the major high of 1808; the 170th anniversary of the peak and crash of 1837; the 100th anniversary of the high of 1907, which was followed by the "Rich Man's Panic" of 1907; the 70th anniversary of the high of 1937, which was followed by a crash; and the 20th anniversary of the peak and crash of 1987. I also pointed out that 2007 marked the 400th anniversary of the beginning of public trading of shares of stock, which occurred in Holland in 1607. I explained at that time that markets recognize anniversary dates because they are governed by mass human psychology, which is mathematically ordered. The "collective unconscious," as explained by the Swiss psychologist Karl Jung, supercedes news events, no matter how dramatic they might be.

Well, we can now see that the year 2007 indeed marked a major high in the stock market, and I believe it will be seen in retrospect as a high as significant as that of 1929. The crash of 1929 lasted into 1932; but I think the crash that began in 2007 will last longer, perhaps as long as 8 years or more. As of October 10, one of our turning dates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen from a high of 14,200 on (October 11, 2007) to a low of 7,882. Notice the one-year anniversary date? The major high and (thus far) important low were almost exactly one year apart. This is about a 45 percent decline, almost equal to decline from 1973 - 1974, and the largest decline (thus far) since 1929 - 1932.

The 1973 - 1974 market plunge was accompanied by a very steep recession. And we are seeing a recession set in as the current decline unfolds. But there is something different this time around: unprecedented levels of debt at the consumer level, the corporate level, and most certainly at the federal government level.
And the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market has brought down a number of Wall Street institutions. It is this deleveraging of debt that is the real long-term culprit for the U. S. and world economies. The vanishing liquidity has occurred at a breathtaking pace. Right now, it appears that the credit crisis has subsided;but rest assured, it has not. It will return with a vengeance at some point. That is the way markets work, of course. They ravage investors and then stage interim rallies that can last for long periods of time. These interim rallies, of course, lull most investors into a false sense of security, making them unprepared for the next downturn. "

As a new President takes over, and 8 years of hell end, I believe the market may now be a ripe buy for good blue chips, for traders willing to now hold for the long term. I continue to believe the "best is past" until all supply side economics stops it trickle down, and more subsidized programs and tax shifts develop a country with more distribution of wealth. Is it right? No. Is it necessary? Sadly, yes.

Yesterday, on Presidential euphoria, the market hit highs of 9693, and lows of 9283. The Nov480C was sold to top profits of 19.50, from the prior day buy, and we're now holding only a December put, for what should be a "two way trade" potential as the market now reacts to who wins, and what will happen next.

Today Is It

Today is it. History will be made. Vote smartly. Your lives depend upon this. Economically we have created a world wide disaster, based on supply side economics, lack of regulatory controls, and "we are in charge" thinking to the world. Our arrogance has hurt us greatly. Question authority, question FALSE facts, and elect smartly.


Subscriber JK gave me some good work on new stock terms, that might help you:

CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.

CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.

BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.

Citi says credit card losses may hit record levels in 2009. Ford, which makes big cars and trucks and deserves this, had sales off 30% for October. They knew better. GM down 45%, and they obviously didn't know better, but a true sign of recession is Toyota, which does right, also down 23%.

We believe two way trades are a very likely possibility, although truly no one can predict both this election, and how the American public will respond.

Today Will End My Rants... For Now ; )

Today will end my soap box rants, as we elect a new President tomorrow. 8 years ago I wrote in newsletters:

*George Bush will be the worst President of all time. The economy will shudder, the deficit will rise, and he will get us in oil wars. He is worse than his Father

and a neo-con that will take away our rights to privacy." I was sadly dead right.

4 years ago I wrote:

*Once again the Bush dynasty has put fear to the American people, on "terrorism" and "protection," and we stupidly have believed them. We are led by Cheney, the real President, a true neo-con,

Rumsfeld who has "outsourced" the war, and by an Administration that has played to Wall Street, deregulated excessively, and taken away all capitalism controls, so that only the wealthy win. It will devastate our economy and our nation will suffer worldwide disdain." I was sadly dead right again.

Today I write:

*If McCain is elected you will see the same games continue, the same war lies, the same religious crap that has NOTHING to do with our people, and our nation will not get out of debt, but have more.

Just that he could consider a Sarah Palin as his VP candidate shows his inability for true leadership. If you honestly believe that Sarah could be President and she has a 1 in 3 chance, you truly are someone I do not understand, as she has shown no capability to even know the issues, and wraps herself in "buzz words."

Obama brings hope that a fully Democratic led House and Congress could restore our country's financial health, as Reagonomics "supply side" deficit building will be stopped.

Vote smartly. Your life depends upon it this time. Don't fall for stupidity of newsbites or religious fervor. Same sex marriage laws has NOTHING to do with our country's future.

Question authority.

There were several signs that market conditions for swing traders and medium term investors were improving this week:

Tuesday's near record gains were sustained through to week's end. This is contrary to the recent history when large gains have been followed by similarly large losses
As the market summary below shows, the indexes made some very impressive gains. The Russell 2000 performed best with a 12% gain
The gains were held into the close on Friday, indicating that nervousness about weekend events has diminished
TED Spread and Libor rates are coming down slowly, although they are still way too high for free credit flow.
We don't know if we have seen the bottom of this bear market yet, but we expect that immediately following the election the winning senator will take the lead in proposing legislation that will alleviate the depth of the recession we are already in. We know the Democrats are in favor of a new stimulus package and Martin Feldstein, an advisor to the McCain campaign, has also proposed a stimulus plan. So there is a good chance of bipartisan approval for new stimulus measures, whomever is elected President on Tuesday.