Thursday, August 28, 2008

The Market was Ripe for a Turn

From BD:

"I'm out. Top sells 590 Call to 11.80, 33% and 600 Call to 6.5, 13%....

I've modified my exit strategy by not holding out for top % gain all of the time, its a judgement call. When I start to look at % gains, I get greedy, or think well I've risked this much, I should be rewarded with this much. Not so. Trading pivots, supp/res and the short term bb/ma for confirmation of moves. My patience is much better too.

Following the VIX has helped my trading as well for overall direction."

From NBW:
"Nice. Bought the 590 at 8.00 and took it to 11.70, one day. Sold 600C also tighter profits. Profitable all week".

What happened?

1. The market moved right to 11594. (See Dow projections below)
2. Everyone got excited because Fannie and Freddie sold some paper, meaning that a bail out may not occur.
(This means that Fannie and Freddie continued to cook the books, and bought some time. I believe a bail out will be required over time as the books get analyzed.)
3. The market was RIPE for a turn. We have gone from a 6 bell curve count to the call, to a 6 bell curve count to the put, and back and forth. It's a market in pure whipsaw.

More upside remains likely, around whipsaw.

Market conditions could easily shift to two way trades. We will not yet trade puts, watching for a higher Dow top prior to our first entry, but watch futures carefully.

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