We bought right. As the market boomed Friday we missed the upside, which was a true bear rally as we see it, and bought our opening positions to the September put. We believe the market is set to the top, in a market that 300 point whipsaw moves daily are becoming the norm, and that no news is really good.
Read our Dow projections carefully. There are other perspectives to last week's rally. Volume DID increase while a similar move in April, volume did not. Commodity prices, the revolver to stocks, have dropped 20% And last, the USD is short term gaining traction. A strong dollar would allow the FEDS to keep the interest rates low, and control inflation.
With this, note that the Dow is now above it's 50 day moving average. On this Monday before August expiration, the Dow is up 10 of the last 12. We'll continue to watch the Dow to hold above the 200 day moving average before we become bullish, and will instead watch the market this week for continued confirmation, with suspicion.
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