Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Everything is Vague

Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise.
- Bertrand Russell


The Madoff 50 billion Ponzi scheme. First, you must study this situation. Spend at least two hours on the internet studying what was allowed to occur, and by whom.

You will see the fraud that has led our country, for many years, and brought to fruition by the Greed of the last 8 years. The blame is far reaching, deep rooted, and within our "Hummer mentality"..."the plastic water bottles in the thermos thinking" that will soon make you smile. As it may stop.

Regardless, what occurred hits those in Palm Beach, Fl, quite near my home, and makes me smile as the ease of return is suddenly seeing the 17 million condos on the market over the last weekend, as the cash came due.

Bernie knew everyone. He was the ultimate con man. And the next housing wave of disaster now seems exposed, so...the money is in cash, gold, and fast trading of OEX Options, at least in my book.

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Which leads to the market...."many traders are blaming high octane exchanged traded funds for the markets wild moves in the last hour of trading," says the Wall Street Journal. These are the leveraged ETF's that bet on sectors or stock indices, such as the Ultrashort Financial Proshares ETF, which allows investors to bet against financial stocks. On 8 of the last 10 worst days for the S&P500 since September 1st, 29% or more of the move took place in the final hour; on three days, more than half of the selloff occurred after 3 p.m.

What this means to us is to KNOW the event in advance, that the 3 p.m. hour will now potentially be even higher volatility, and more demanding, to the investor. I continue to often do my final trades between 4.02 p.m. and 4.15 p.m. after the general market has closed.

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The market allowed us profits again, and the January 460C sold to highs of 13.40 by 3.30 p.m, for traders that bought Monday, and also available for new buys at 9.90. We start the day with no open positions. :)

We believe the market reacted to zero interest rates as expected, with a burst of silly of euphoria, and that the market will soon, if not already, top. We are seeing the same topping as in the past, and the market could burst above 9000, temporarily. We'll not play any more upside, but begin with the put.

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