Sunday, September 26, 2010

I smile

Study our lengthy and revised Dow projections this morning and play the market around futures.

We hit solid highs above the Fib retracement and held Friday, leaving the optimistic with hopes of crossing 11,000.
Despite what the news bytes and GOP say, the economy is essentially strong, just not moving fast enough, and with the "unemployment" number now the only thing America thinks about.

I smile.

During the Bush Admin the true unemployment ran just near 10%; they always proved lower. During the Obama administration the unemployment rate is probably in reality closer to 15%, and there is not one damn thing that will restore unemployment other than small business credit accessibility, held up by the GOP for the last 5 months, and finally passing.

Large and small corporations have learned how to make do with less workers, and also are forced to reduce labor force in order to obtain realistic margins to stay in business.

In America, we must buy "on sale" and "at a bargain," and with the consumer now so knowledgable (internet) we've successfully phucked it up so that fewer companies actually make money.

This is called the Wal-Mart effect.

On Friday risk traders that had bought the October 510C were rewarded with a 49% jump from the prior day close, with sales up to 14.20.

Traders also learned, if they had kept the put til Friday, that they had to stop loss, even though the position was "tightly" profitable the two days prior.

There is a lesson here:

1. On clear bias ( up or down) when we suggest an alternate signal buy also, always be ready to sell at tight profits.

2. Following support and resistance lines, and recalculating through the day, is the best way to under the pivot , and where the next step will be.

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