Monday, September 28, 2009

The Market is at a Turning Point

Today is Yom Kippur. It is also a key date for potential downturn, or when reversals normally occur.

Let's start with where we are "fucked." This video is making the rounds as "propaganda" the socialists are trying to put in our schools. Read the lyrics. Try to understand what the message really was, and how "good and open" to all faith, without mention of war or opinion. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zrsl8o4ZPo&feature=youtube_gdata
This helps comment well on the the "state of our nation." Recent blogs you can find at http://www.bluechipoptions.com/ should help our OEX traders to see how I feel the "sad mood" of a nation divided will affect our overall return to a healthy nation.

Stocks fell some of last week for several key reasons:

1. The FEDS talked about inflation. It's an evil word to America.
2. The market was vastly oversold, and extended, and we hit new highs.
3. The USD finally bounced up, homebuilders began to weigh on the market, and even the financial sector overall leader, XLY, began to show signs of holding at resistance lines.

If September has historically been a bad month for stocks, October is often the harbinger of the "best six months" beginning, and it's likely we think for the Dow to hit its top Fibonnaci retracement at 10,700.

Our Dow projections have been in a range of 700 points for over 3 weeks, showing the strength of the market building, hesitating, and struggling at 10,000. As we'll point out in our Blue Chip Options service today also:

The USD gained short term strength late last week, while homebuilders (XHB) falling for five days, and beginning to show signs of resistance breaking down. It's showing in KB Homes (KBH) and Pulte Homes (PHM).
We suggest you pull charts on all three of these sectors and begin tracking, just as we should be tracking the financial sector, the winner of the year, and note the relative performance of XLY is showing signs of stalling.

I am most interested in XLY which I see more as what represents the most economically sensitive area, how we are spending. I remain worried about inflation, and the lack of normal correlation between a rising stock market and lowering of unemployment. This is not occurring this time through, and remains a flag. There are simply not enough new jobs, businesses are cutting back to make money with rising costs of doing business"
With all this said, the market last week and especially this week is at a turning point.

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