Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Supply Side Economics Fail Again

The government chickens out and will bail out yet another slimy company. The market will take this well, at first.

Yesterday we saw a market two way trade several times, and both puts and calls were profitable in new trades, for some traders, several times.

The FEDS finally may have gone off the drug of interest rates, and some bail out. I'm astonished.
Some of the best moves we've seen in 8 hideous years have taken place. We should NOT bail out banks, nor lower interest rates.

Supply side economics, yet again, has been shown to the pure failure.

The market hit bottoms at 10,700, and began a struggle from 10,900 to 11,100, with whipsaw around the FEDS announcement.

All of the situations we've recently experienced in the financial markets could have been avoided. The current situation in Afghanistan, where we have truly lost the war on terror, could have been avoided. Our tax increases, monumental in our debt, could have been avoided.
This, and how we see it, dramatically affects the stock market.

No matter who you elect, remember this: it is not the experience, but the understanding of what must be done, and who surrounds the lead, that will make it work.

Regulation will be required, only because the GREED within the lobbying and Wall Street influence permeates all we do. Do NOT for a a minute believe that "free enterprise will control the market", as there is NO free enterprise. Large multinationals own the markets, and industries, and these companies, in good times and bad, bribe the market. As long as this form of free enterprise takes place, no controls will be in place.
McCain:

"On the campaign trail on Monday, Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, struck a populist tone. Speaking in Florida, he said that the economy’s underlying fundamentals remained strong but were being threatened “because of the greed by some based in Wall Street and we have got to fix it.”

But his record on the issue, and the views of those he has always cited as his most influential advisers, suggest that he has never departed in any major way from his party’s embrace of deregulation and relying more on market forces than on the government to exert discipline.

While Mr. McCain has cited the need for additional oversight when it comes to specific situations, like the mortgage problems behind the current shocks on Wall Street, he has consistently characterized himself as fundamentally a deregulator and he has no history prior to the presidential campaign of advocating steps to tighten standards on investment firms.

He has often taken his lead on financial issues from two outspoken advocates of free market approaches, former Senator Phil Gramm and Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman. Individuals associated with Merrill Lynch, which sold itself to Bank of America in the market upheaval of the past weekend, have given his presidential campaign nearly $300,000, making them Mr. McCain’s largest contributor, collectively.


Nelson Mandela's name was removed from our Homeland Security terrorist list July 1st, 2008.

> This is a fact that explains our terrorism issues perfectly. 20,000 new names are added to the list each month. Yours might be one of them :)
>
> The U.S. housing market will hit bottom, according to current futures trading, in 2010.

And from trader Bill, a few notes from his emails to me yesterday:


> "Buy's at 11.20, sold partials at 16.00.
>
> Holding for top sell of 19.00; multi-day trade. VIX spike today is nice but expect more capitulation.....
>
> Will buy on retrace of up to 33% to 10926 order for 14.50.
>
> Buy on retrace to 50% for 13.00
>
> Sell order in at 15.50. Sold partials, again.
>
> Will buy again if retrace.
>
> Overall looking for a move to 11,110.
>
> Looks like a trading range between 10900 and 11000 and change....
>
> Not sure yet if I am willing to hold overnight....."

I am trading small lots because of the higher risk of the market. I was going to hold yesterdays puts overnight, but it wasn't worth the risk.....Who the hell knows what the FED would do......

BTW:

It's nice to be in cash......:)

100% for months......loading up on emerging markets mutual funds in the 401k......

No worries.....Actually building a 4,200 sf house right now.....

contractors are falling all over themselves to get work.....some material prices are coming down....

Bank (local) even lent me a large sum of money to build.....

My profits from trading are paying for house upgrades....."

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